分析人士:油脂强弱与供需和宏观预期有关

数码产品 0 872

来源:期货日报

近期,油脂板块整体出现回落,油、豆油、菜油期货都有不同程度的下跌。文华商品油脂板块指数自11月7日从222.63点一路走低,截至11月23日收盘报于208.01点,跌幅近7%。

“近日油脂期货出现不同程度的下跌,除与供应增长的预期相关外,也离不开美联储加息预期变化带来的影响。”中信建投期货油脂油料分析师石丽红表示,从宏观方面来看,美国10月超预期回落的CPI令市场对美联储放缓加息产生一定期待,但近期美联储多位官员接连释放鹰派信号,市场对美国加息终点利率预期提高至5%以上,这令美元指数重拾涨势,包括商品在内的风险资产再度承压。此外,市场对需求的担忧不止限于餐饮油脂消费,还包括原油需求,而原油价格下挫又进一步带动油脂下行,这对棕榈油的拖累尤其明显。

除此之外,油脂供应端显著改善也对其盘面表现形成了压制。记者了解到,随着前期采购大量到港,近两周国内、菜籽和棕榈油库存显著回升,这对前期炒作现货供应紧张的品种打击明显,也是近几日菜油期货2301合约大幅下挫的重要原因。

与此同时,国内三个油脂品种先后领跌油脂板块,走势出现分化。在新湖期货油脂油料分析师陈燕杰看来,三个油脂品种的阶段性强弱,与自身基本面和消息面预期有关。

“虽然国内棕榈油供应宽松,呈现高库存、低基差局面,但马棕盘面抗跌,从成本端支撑连棕。虽然国内豆油呈现低库存、高基差局面,但近两个月预期到港的大豆充足。随着国内进口大豆压榨量显著回升,预估豆油库存将逐渐增加,基差也将进一步回落。”陈燕杰告诉期货日报记者,此外,因储备菜油存在轮入需求,市场一度预期春节前国内进口菜油供应依旧紧张,但近期传言储备菜油轮入可能延后,菜油开始走弱。她总结说:“整体来看,国内棕榈油随着进口增加供应大为改善,国内豆油和菜油最近1—2周供应边际也将改善。”

石丽红表示,从目前油脂的基本面来看,随着新作油籽到港及压榨回升,供应有望得到大幅改善,而需求端表现不佳。随着到港量不断增加,短期油脂在库存回升预期下,仍将偏向于承压回落。

“新季供应上市会对豆油和菜油产生阶段性压力。近期,港口和油厂大豆库存止跌以及菜籽库存大幅快速回升,均反映出供应逐步改善。随着后期进口增加,会对盘面构成压力。不过,由于前期印尼政策调整所带来的利空释放以及东南亚减产季到来,棕榈油的‘寒冬’已过,季节性调整空间有限。然而,马棕良好的出口数据和产量下滑,对近日棕榈油行情提供了支持。”中辉期货油脂油料分析师贾晖表示。

在陈燕杰看来,目前油脂板块暂时没有明显的方向驱动。后期行情驱动可能来自两个方面:一方面是产地天气,包括南美大豆及东南亚棕榈油产区;另一方面是美国和印尼生物柴油政策的变化。她进一步解释说:“未来随着到港量进一步增加,国内豆油和菜油供应紧张局面将有所缓和,但相比往年同期仍将偏紧。同时,国内豆油和菜油基差趋弱。”

“虽然油脂板块上方面临较大压力,但未来油脂是否向下突破仍要看原油走势。”石丽红分析说,近期原油濒临破位令油脂面临向下破位的风险,但在12月4日的OPEC+会议产量决议出来之前,原油存在一定的反弹需求。如果后期原油能继续保持高位运行,那么滞胀预期下的商品有望继续获得阶段性支撑。然而,一旦原油破位下行,滞胀预期破灭,包括油脂在内的商品将再度步入下跌的新阶段。

随着供应改善及盘面价格回落,近期油脂基差也承压。据石丽红介绍,棕榈油基差是最先反映市场供应增长预期的,供应也是最先获得改善的。当前华南24度棕榈油基差较前几个月显著下跌。随后松动基差的是豆油,华东一级豆油基差在10月达到1800元/吨高位,但在大豆到港、压榨增加、中短期餐饮需求难恢复的预期下,目前豆油基差仅有1000—1050元/吨,不排除后期还有回落的空间。此外,未能改善的供应局面令菜油基差持续坚挺,但随着上周沿海菜籽压榨回升和菜油到港增多,菜油基差也开始松动。

“三个油脂品种基差发生变化,很好地反映了国内油脂当前的供需局面。此外,中期供给增加,远期基差报价也在反映未来的供需格局。”陈燕杰说。

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